NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 3/CYCLONE SITRANG | DATE: 24 OCT 2022 | DAY: MONDAY | TIME: 05:00PM BST (+6 GMT)
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As of Monday noon BST, “CYCLONE SITRANG” has intensified slightly over North Central Bay of Bengal.
Multispectral satellite animation is showing a broad area of strong rotation with sheared convection north & NW of the partially exposed Low Level Circulation Center.
It is being located approximately 300km South of Mongla, Bangladesh.
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★WINDS(1MIN AVG):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center at 03pm Today is 75km/h.
Gusting up to 95km/h.
•The intensity guidance is hedged below the ADT estimate at 084500Z(47KT) and tied with AiDT(40KT), SATCON(43KT), ASCAT(40KT) and hedged above ATMS (30KT) & SSMIS(30KT).
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★DYNAMIC ANALYSIS:-
Upper Level analysis indicates that the system is currently in marginally favourable environment due to enhanced outflow, favourable SST (29-30°C), good lower level vorticity, moisture supply, weak CCKW offsetting by moderate to high wind shear, broad feature, descending branch of MJO and relevant atmospheric parameters and soon land interaction will join to inhibit any further intensification.
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•Due to the aforementioned conditions, It could maintain intensity over the next 6 hours. Then, it might experience land interaction and high VWS to weaken gradually into a Deep Depression by tomorrow (25th) morning over Southern Bangladesh & further into a Depression by the afternoon of the same day.
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•The Cyclonic Storm (Sitrang) has peaked 75kph(~1min) with gusting up to 95kph.
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★MOVEMENT:-
It has moved on NNE direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 20km/h.
*From the present location, it could move NE towards Bangladesh coast by maintaining it’s current intensity.
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★LANDFALL:-
It could cross Bangladesh coast between Barguna & Sandweep as a Cyclonic Storm(≤75kph) by 24th night- 25th Morning.
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★WARNING:–
Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh coast could experience 45-75kph winds with gusting up to 95kph during 24-25th October. While, winds could be stronger over Bangladesh coast. Post 6am of 25th, winds could reduce gradually. The system could bring 4-6Feet waves combined with high tide.
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★ADVISORY:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the northern & Central Bay of Bengal & neighborhood areas during next 24-36hrs. Everyone should cancel all tour plan into the deep sea for the given period which is close to the System Track.
Currently, whomever into the sea should stay close to the coast or avoid the risky area as stated here.
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★RAINFALL:-
Due to the direct influence of the System, “Southern, Central, NE and Eastern Bangladesh” could have Heavy to Very Heavy rain along with Tropical Squalls between 24-26 Oct 2022. While western Bangladesh and coastal West Bengal could have moderate to isolated heavy rain except Rajshahi & Rangpur Division.
*Rainfall activity could reduce across Bangladesh from 26th Late.
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★NOTE: These information are subjective to change slightly. So, check new updates for better information!
Resources used in this analysis: Global Models, Himawari 8 Satellite, EWP, CCKW, 200hPa VP, 850hpa Vorticity, 500hPa Vorticity, 200hpa Winds, Sea Surface Temperature, OLR, WWB, Monsoon Axis, Madden Julian Oscillation, Intra-Seasonal Oscillation, Synoptic Chart, Wind Shear, Subtropical Ridge.
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Thanks, ©Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).