NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 2/CYCLONIC STORM (06B) | DATE: 08 DEC 2022 | DAY: THURSDAY | TIME: 01:40AM BST (+6 GMT)
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As of Wednesday late night BST, the “Deep Depression(96B)” has intensified into a Cyclonic Storm (06B) over Southwest adjoining South Central Bay of Bengal.
Multispectral satellite animation is showing good rotations with deep convection sheared to the west of the partially obscured Low Level Circulation Center.
It is being located approximately 745km SE of Chennai, India.
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★WINDS(1MIN AVG):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center at 12am Today is 65km/h.
Gusting up to 85km/h.
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★DYNAMIC ANALYSIS:-
Upper Level analysis indicates that the system is currently in marginally favourable environment due to robust outflow, favourable SST (29°C), good lower level vorticity, moisture supply, Moderately Strong CCKW, Weak MJO(RMM) and relevant atmospheric parameters offsetting by High VWS(25-35KT).
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•Due to the aforementioned conditions, It could intensify slowly to have it’s peak intensity within next 12-18hrs.
Then, It is likely to maintain Cyclonic Storm(≤75kph) intensity for a short period & weaken thereafter due to weakening outflow, existing high VWS, dry air intrusion & cooling sea surface.
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•With the above atmospheric condition, the storm is likely to peak near 75kph(~1min) with gusting up to 95kph.
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★MOVEMENT:-
It was remain stationary during past 12hrs.
*From the present location, it could move NW towards Tamil Nadu-South Andhra Pradesh coast with a bit more intensification.
Post 8th Dec, the storm could weaken but reach coast with holding intensity of a Deep Depression by 9th evening.
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★LANDFALL:-
It could cross coasts between Puducherry to Chennai as a Deep Depression by early hours of 10th Dec.
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★WARNING:–
Tamil Nadu & South Andhra coast could experience 45-60kph winds with gusting up to 75kph during 9-10 Dec 2022. Then, winds could reduce gradually.
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★ADVISORY:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the South West Bay of Bengal & neighborhood areas during next 2/3days. Everyone should cancel all tour plan close to the system track for the given period.
Currently, whomever into the sea should stay close to the coast or avoid the risky area as stated here.
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★RAINFALL:-
Due to the direct influence of the System, “South East coastal India including Andhra Pradesh & Tamil Nadu could have moderate to Very Heavy rain along with Tropical Squalls between 9-11/12 Dec 2022. While Eastern India & Bangladesh could have partly to mostly cloudy skies.
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★NOTE: These information are subjective to change slightly. So, check new updates for better information!
Resources used in this analysis: Global Models, Himawari 8 Satellite, CCKW, 200hPa VP, 850hpa Vorticity, 500hPa Vorticity, Sea Surface Temperature, MJO, WWB, EWB, Synoptic Chart, Wind Shear, Subtropical Ridge.
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Thanks, ©Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).