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TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL | 7TH-11TH MAY 2023

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE!! BAY OF BENGAL AREA (80E-100E)
UPDATE DATE: 6TH MAY 2023 | UPDATE TIME: 03:00 PM BST (+6 GMT)
SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL | PERIOD: 7TH-11TH MAY 2023

Under the influence of an Upper Air Circulation, A Low Pressure Area could form over South-East Bay of Bengal by 8th May 2023. It could intensify into a Tropical Depression (≥45kph) by 9/10th May over the same region & Subsequently into a Deep Depression by 10/11th May while tracking nearly northward direction.

*Due to having very favorable conditions ahead, it could intensify into a Significant Tropical Cyclone between 11-13th May 2023.Overall confidence in the forecast is high as an Upper Air Circulation has formed over South and South-East BoB.


And MJO signal found over Phase 4-5 with amplitude more than 1.5 and likely  to decrease amplitude over the Maritime Continent(ph 5) , which is still favorable for Tropical Development over Bay of Bengal. Also Sea Surface Temperature is very high(30-32°C) over major parts of the sea, which is very conductive for the development process. Wind Shear is likely to be Low (5-15kt) over the development area during 7-11 May and  thereafter. Also other relevant parameters are likely to be favorable during the forecast period.

The combination of these parameters could cause very favorable environment through the whole forecast period. That’s why, It is having some notable chances to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm.

★Max intensity is dependent on the track & future condition of the BOB. So currently, max intensity looks skeptical right now. But Sea condition suggests that it seems to be a stronger one.

Thus, The UAC, MJO, favorable VWS & other favorable parameters are leading High confidence in this development forecast.

LANDFALL & MAX INTENSITY:-

Landfall is dependent on the future steering influence of Subtropical Ridge (STR) to the East and Western Disturbance (WD) influence which is anticipated between Odisha to South-East Bangladesh coast as a Significant Tropical Cyclone between 14-15 May 2023(may vary). On the other hand,  weakness in the steering influence of the STR from east may cause landfall into Myanmar coast (earlier). Max intensity is skeptical & anticipated with the track of the system.

Present assessment with the multi-region formation zone says landfall potentiality stands for Bangladesh or closest Myanmar coast around 60%, 30% for Odisha/WB coast and 10% for somewhere else. We expect  a clearer view after at least the Low Pressure Area formation.

⚠️Effects:-

Due to the direct impact of the Potential Cyclone, The potentially affected areas may have Heavy to Very Heavy rain along with Strong Tropical Squalls & Isolated Extremely Heavy falls between 13-16 May 2023. Northern and Central Bay of Bengal could have very rough seas between 12-15 May 2023 (May vary with the track).

☔RAINFALL:-

The potentially affected areas may have Heavy to Very Heavy rain along with Strong Tropical Squalls & Isolated Extremely Heavy falls between 13-16 May 2023

▪️See the graphic to see the development area & the potentially affected areas .

*NB: This forecast includes the landfall probability of the Tropical system based on probable steering influence and probable formation area which is based on present perspective. So, It could be changed if the track changes! Don’t make major decisions rather than having precaution based on this update. We will not be responsible for any loss of life and properties by taking action according to this update. We intend to spread awareness rather than spreading panic or hype across the public sentiment.

★Note:-

These informations are based on present conditions & it might be changed somewhere during the entire forecast period. So, keep eye on the latest update for better information.

Stay connected, Stay alert, Stay Safe.
Thanks, ©Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT)

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