NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 1/LOW PRESSURE AREA(92B) | DATE: 21 OCT 2023 | DAY: SATURDAY | TIME: 2:00AM BST (+6 GMT)
As of Friday evening BST, “Invest 92B” is being located over Southern Central Bay of Bengal as a Low Pressure Area.
Multi-spectral satellite animation is showing marginal rotations with formative deep convection Southwest of the partially exposed Low Level Circulation Center.
It is being located approximately 810km SE of Visakhapatnam, India.
★WINDS(1MIN AVG):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center at 12am Today is 25km/h. Gusting up to 35km/h.
★DYNAMIC ANALYSIS:-
Upper Level analysis indicates that the system is currently in a marginally favorable environment due to weak outflow, favorable SST (29-30°C), improved lower level vorticity, decent moisture supply offsetting by absence of MJO, broad structure, descending branch of MJO and relevant atmospheric parameters.
Due to the aforementioned conditions, It could intensify slowly but gradually into a Well Marked LPA within next 24-36hrs, Tropical Depression by 23 Oct & into a Deep Depression by 24th Oct. Overall conditions doesn’t support cyclonic storm till now. Although, a low probability(<30%) of a minimal CS should be kept as the sea surface temperature is supportive throughout the potential track of the system.
*With the above atmospheric condition, the system is likely to peak near 55-65kph(~1min) with gusting up to 75-85kph.
★MOVEMENT:-
It was remained stationary during past 6hrs.
*From the present location, it could initially move NW towards West Central Bay of Bengal and intensify slowly but gradually. Around 23rd Oct, it could recurve NE towards Bangladesh coast with gradual intensification up to a Deep Depression.
★LANDFALL:-
It could cross the Bangladesh coast between Barisial & Chittagong as a Depression or Deep Depression by 25th October.
★WARNING:–
Most parts of coastal Bangladesh, including parts of West Bengal coast, may experience 45-65kph winds with gusting up to 65-85kph by 25th of October 2023.
★ADVISORY:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested not to venture into the deep sea along the track of the system during next 5 days. Everyone should cancel all tour plan into the deep sea for the given period which is close to the System Track.
Currently, whomever into the sea should stay close to the coast or avoid the risky area as stated here.
★RAINFALL:-
Due to the direct influence of the System, “Southern and Eastern Bangladesh” could have Heavy to Very Heavy rain along with Tropical Squalls between 24-27 Oct 2023. While Central Bangladesh and coastal West Bengal could have moderate to heavy rain.
*Rainfall activity could reduce significantly across Bangladesh from 27th Oct.
★Note: This information is subjective to change slightly. So, check new updates for better information!
Resources used in this analysis: Global Models, Himawari 9 Satellite, EWP, CCKW, 200hPa VP, 850hpa Vorticity, 500hPa Vorticity, 200hpa Winds, Sea Surface Temperature, OLR, WWB, EWB, ITCZ position, Synoptic Chart, Wind Shear, Subtropical Ridge.
Share as much as possible to inform everyone. Stay connected for next update!
Thanks, © Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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