NOTE: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER!!
UPDATE 1/ WELL MARKED LPA (94B) | DATE: 15 NOVEMBER 2023 | DAY: WEDNESDAY TIME: 2:25PM BST ( +6 GMT)

The Well Marked LPA (“Invest 94B”) over the south central Bay of Benga has moved slightly north-westwards and intensified slightly over the west central Bay of Bengal. It is currently located about 800km SW of Mongla port.

★MAXIMUM WIND (1 MINUTE SUSTAINED):-
The average maximum wind speed is 40 km/hr at a radius of 50 km from the center of the low at 12 noon today. which is increasing in gusts up to 55 km/h.

★Dynamic Analysis:-
Upper level analysis of the atmosphere indicates that the system is currently in a somewhat favorable environment, with favorable sea surface temperatures (28-29°C), Moisture supply and some relevant parameters. But it is expected that the system will not be able to take full advantage of this environment as some necessary parameters are missing and the structure is not well structured. Also, North Bay of Bengal is relatively cold.

• Due to the above mentioned conditions, it may gradually intensify into a Tropical Depression within next 6 hours and a Deep Depression in 12-14 hours. After that, if favorable conditions persist, there is a possibility of becoming a minimal cyclonic storm.

•According to the above mentioned atmospheric conditions, the maximum intensity of the system may be 55-65kph(~1min). which may increase to around 75 to 85 km with gusty winds.

★Track:-
It was moving towards North North West at an average speed of 15 km/hr during last 6 hours.
*From present position, it may move north initially and gradually increase strength. After the next 24 hours, it may recurve and move towards the Bangladesh and West Bengal coasts.

★Landfall:-
There is uncertainty about its coastal landfall. However, if it crosses the coast, it may cross any coast between West Bengal coast to Barisal, Bangladesh as a Depression or Deep Depression during the night of November 17 to November 18 afternoon, or it may weaken and disappear in the North West Bay of Bengal.

★ Warning: –
The coastal parts of Bangladesh including some parts of West Bengal coast may experience gusty winds of around 45-55 kmph with gustiness of 65-75 kmph on November 17th and 18th. It is requested not to go into deep sea along the system’s track during the next 3-4 days. Everyone should cancel all travel plans for the given time into the deep sea that falls close to the system track.
Currently, those at sea should stay close to the coast or avoid risky areas.

★Rainfall:
Rainfall under the direct influence of the system. Due to Pubali 2, “Heavy to very heavy rains with gusty winds may occur in many areas of Khulna, Barisal and Chittagong divisions especially along the coast. On the other hand, moderate to heavy rains may occur in several areas of Dhaka and Sylhet divisions and coastal West Bengal. And elsewhere in the country there may be light to moderate rains.
Rainy belt Pubali 2 may leave the country after November 22.

Resources used in this analysis: Global Models, Himawari 9 Satellite, EWP, CCKW, 200hPa VP, 850hpa Vorticity, 500hPa Vorticity, 200hpa Winds, Sea Surface Temperature, OLR, WWB, EWB, ITCZ ​​position, Synoptic Chart, Wind Shear, Subtropical Ridge.

Confidence Category:
High: Trajectory change may be limited to within 100 km.
Moderate/Medium: Trajectory change may be limited to within 200 km.
Low: Trajectory change may exceed 200 km.

Note: This information may vary slightly due to natural causes. So, check new updates for more better information!
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Thanks, © Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).