Ex Typhoon Maria Landfall is expected across NE Japan as a weaker storm 

Typhoon Maria Update Time: 101200Z (12:00 UTC on August 10, 2024) | 21:00 JST on August 10, 2024

Highlight: “Tropical Storm Maria (Ex Typhoon) is forecasted to make landfall along the northeastern coast of Honshu, Japan, within the next 24 to 36 hours.” 

Ex Typhoon Maria’s Current Position and Intensity

As of the latest update from JTWC, Tropical Storm Maria (Ex Typhoon) (06W) is currently active in the Northwest Pacific, tracking north-northwestward at 20 km/h (11 knots).

As of the latest advisory, Maria was positioned near 36.0N, 145.0E, approximately 319 nautical miles (591 km) southeast of Misawa, Japan.

The storm is packing maximum sustained winds of 83 km/h (45 knots), with gusts reaching up to 102 km/h (55 knots), and is generating significant wave heights of 25 feet.

Satellite Analysis and Environmental Conditions for Tropical Storm Maria

The storm’s structure has been closely monitored through animated multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) and microwave imagery.

The imagery reveals a partially exposed low-level circulation center (LLC), with deep convective bands primarily located in the northern semicircle.

The initial intensity of Tropical Storm Maria is assessed at 45 knots, based on high-confidence estimates from various sources, including Dvorak technique assessments and recent data from CIMSS.

Current Environmental Factors Affecting Tropical Storm Maria

The current environmental conditions surrounding Tropical Storm Maria are favorable for its development. The storm benefits from strong poleward outflow into a jet stream to the north, low vertical wind shear (10-15 knots), and warm sea surface temperatures (SST) around 28-29°C.

These factors contribute to the storm’s ability to maintain its strength and possibly intensify slightly in the short term.

Forecast Discussion and Track Analysis of Typhoon Maria

Tropical Storm Maria is being steered by a deep-layered subtropical ridge (STR) positioned to the east and northeast. This steering mechanism has caused the storm to turn north-northwestward over the past 12 hours.

Forecast models predict that Maria will gradually shift towards a more northwestward track as the STR builds to the north.

• Short-Term Intensity: The storm is expected to intensify slightly within the next 12-24 hours due to the overall favorable conditions.

• Approaching Northern Honshu: After this period, Tropical Storm Maria is forecasted to weaken steadily as it approaches the rugged coast of northern Honshu. This weakening is expected due to cooler waters along the coast and the interaction with the mountainous terrain of the Japan Alps.

• Rainfall and Coastal Impact: Heavy rains are anticipated along the northeastern coast of Honshu due to warm, moist easterly flow and orographic lifting. These rains could lead to localized flooding and landslides, especially in mountainous areas.

• Post-Landfall Behavior: After making landfall, the storm is expected to track across Honshu and emerge into the Sea of Japan near the 48-hour mark, likely as a weak tropical depression. Significant weakening will continue as the system moves over cooler sea surface temperatures (24-25°C), and it is forecasted to dissipate by 72 hours.

Potential Target Location and Date of Typhoon Maria Landfall

The landfall area for Tropical Storm Maria is expected to be northeastern coast of Honshu, Japan, specifically between the latitudes of 37N and 40N. And the landfall is anticipated to occur around early morning to noon, August 12, 2024 (local).

Model Guidance and Forecast Confidence on Maria Landfall and Intensity

Numerical model guidance shows a fair agreement on the storm’s track and intensity, although there is some spread in the forecast track between 48 to 72 hours.

The European EPS and American GEFS ensemble models indicate a likely landfall between latitudes 37N and 40N, with a general consensus on the storm’s weakening trend in the Sea of Japan. However, a small subset of GEFS model solutions suggests the potential for reintensification to minimal tropical storm strength as it tracks into the western Sea of Japan.

• Track Confidence: Medium
• Intensity Confidence: Medium

Previous Update: Typhoon Maria is heading towards north Eastern Japan

Preparation and Precautionary Measures for Maria

Residents in the forecasted path of Tropical Storm Maria, particularly in northern Honshu, should prepare for heavy rainfall, strong winds, and potential disruptions to daily life.

Even though the storm is expected to weaken before making landfall, the associated rainfall and wind could still pose risks, especially in areas prone to flooding or landslides. It is crucial to stay updated with the latest forecasts and heed any advisories or warnings issued by local authorities.

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