Latest Update on Tropical Cyclone Alfred (TC 18P), Nearing Brisbane, AU & Intensifying 

As of the Cyclone Alfred Latest Update (March 5, 2025,  15Z) from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Tropical Cyclone Alfred continues to move towards the eastern coast of Australia. The storm is expected to intensify before making landfall near Brisbane.

Current Status of TC Alfred

• Location: 27.3S 156.7E (198 NM East of Brisbane, Australia)
• Intensity: 55 knots (102 km/h)
• Movement: East-southeast at 3 knots
• Significant Wave Height: 30 feet

Environmental Conditions and Forecast Analysis

Tropical Cyclone Alfred has exhibited erratic movement over the past 12 hours, including a tight cyclonic loop. Recent satellite and microwave imagery indicate an improvement in convective structure as the system’s core gains moisture.

Key environmental factors influencing TC Alfred:

• Vertical Wind Shear (VWS): Moderate to high (30+ knots)
• Sea Surface Temperature (SST): Warm (25-26°C)
• Outflow: Moderate eastward
• Convection: Stronger in the southeastern quadrant

Although the system remains under marginal environmental conditions, a reduction in upper-level westerly winds and slightly lower wind shear could support further intensification.

Projected Path and Landfall Impact as of Latest Update of Cyclone Alfred

TC Alfred is expected to shift to a westward track, guided by the subtropical ridge (STR) to the south. The cyclone is forecast to intensify to 60 knots (111 km/h) before making landfall just north of Brisbane within the next 48 hours.

After landfall, Alfred will weaken significantly as it moves inland, dissipating by 72 hours. However, due to its slow movement, the system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and potential flooding to coastal regions of eastern Australia.

Model Guidance and Forecast Confidence as of Cyclone Alfred Latest Update 

• Track Forecast Confidence: Medium
• Intensity Forecast Confidence: Medium
• Peak Intensity Models:
  • HAFS-A model predicts 61 knots at 12 hours.
  • COAMPS-TC (GFS) forecasts 58 knots at 24 hours.

Potential Impacts on Eastern Australia by Cyclone Alfred 

• Strong Winds: Gale-force winds will affect coastal areas, particularly in the eastern and southern quadrants of the system.
• Heavy Rainfall: Sustained precipitation could lead to flooding in low-lying and urban areas.
• High Waves & Storm Surge: Coastal communities should prepare for rough seas and possible storm surge effects.

Precautionary Measures  

Residents along the eastern coast of Australia, especially near Brisbane and Gold Coast, should monitor official updates and prepare for potential severe weather conditions.

Stay tuned for further updates as Tropical Cyclone Alfred continues to develop.

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