NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 3/TROPICAL CYCLONE (02B)
DATE: 07 MAY 2022 | DAY: SATURDAY | TIME: 3:00PM BST (+6 GMT)
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The Depression over South East Bay of Bengal adjoining South Andaman Sea has moved slightly on WNW direction and intensified into a “Cyclonic Storm(02B)” over SE Bay of Bengal this noon.
Multispectral satellite animation is showing improved rotations of the LLCC(Low Level Cyclonic Circulation) along with CDO feature aloft.
It is being located about 1450km SSE of Kolkata, India.
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▪Winds(1min avg):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center is 65km/h.
Gusting up to 80km/h.
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▪Forecast:-
The System is under very favourable environment due to low to moderate VWS offsetting by Excellent Outflow & High SST. Conditions could remain favourable during another 48hrs.
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•It could intensify gradually into a Category 1(US) Cyclone during next 24-48hrs.
NB: the next 24-48hrs could cause faster intensification than you think.
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•As of present view, the Potential Cyclone could peak near 130kph by 9th May.
“There is a chance of rapid intensification in the forecast period that might change the peak intensity significantly.”
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▪Movement:-
It has moved on WNW direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 14km/h.
*From the present location, it could move generally on North West direction towards Eastern Indian coast with gradual intensification. Recurving into north & NNE direction likely thereafter.
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▪Landfall:-
It could cross the coasts between Odisha to SW Bangladesh around 12th May 2022 as a weakening Cyclone.
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▪Warning: N/A
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▪Advisory:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the Deep Sea during next 5-6days.
Sea condition could be rough to very rough over the region.
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▪Rainfall:-
Due to the direct impact of the system, Eastern India & Western Bangladesh could be effected by moderate to heavy rain along with Tropical Squalls & extremely heavy falls at isolated places across the system track between 10-15 May.
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▪Note: These information are subjective to change slightly!
So, check new update for better information!
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Thanks, ©BWOT
Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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