NB: High Confidence on this forecast track for 24hrs, Low confidence thereafter!!
UPDATE 7/TROPICAL CYCLONE ASANI (02B)
DATE: 10 MAY 2022 | DAY: TUESDAY | TIME: 03:40PM BST (+6 GMT)
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The Cyclonic Storm ASANI (02B) over South Western Bay of Bengal has moved further NW & and weakened slightly over the same region.
Multispectral satellite animation continues to show excellent rotations of the LLCC(Low Level Cyclonic Circulation) along with maintaining CDO feature aloft.
It is being located about 225km South East of Kakinada, India.
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▪Winds(1min avg):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center is 110km/h.
Gusting up to 135km/h.
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▪Forecast:-
The System is under marginally favourable environment due to moderate to high VWS offsetting by robust Outflow & High SST. Conditions could become less favourable as outflow could diminish combined with dry air intrusion might force disadvantage for the system. Due to which, system could undergo gradual even rapid weakening beyond 24hrs.
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•So the Cyclone could weaken into a minimal cyclone within next 24hrs crossing coast near Kakinada India.
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•The Cyclone had peaked 120kph yesterday (9th May). While gust was up to 145kph.
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▪Movement:-
It has moved on NW direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 03km/h.
*From the present location, it could move slowly on NW direction towards North Andhra Pradesh Coast & weaken gradually. After crossing coast as a minimal cyclone, it could recurve north east and be dissipated over open water.
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▪Landfall:-
It could crossNorth Andhra coasts tomorrow (11 May 2022) as a weakening minimal Cyclone.
*Significant change in the track happened due to the Eastern STR moved west & caused complex steering environment that bears higher uncertainty.
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▪Warning:
South Odisha & Andhra Pradesh coast could experience 50-70kph winds along with gusting up to 85kph during 11-12 May 2022.
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▪Advisory:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the Deep Sea during next 2-3days.
Sea condition could be rough to very rough over the region.
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▪Rainfall:-
Due to the direct & indirect Impact of the system, Eastern India & Bangladesh could be effected by moderate to heavy rain along with Tropical Squalls & extremely heavy falls at isolated places across the system track between 10-14 May. Instead of Squalls, Bangladesh will be mainly effected by moderate to heavy rain.
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▪Note: These information are subjective to change slightly!
So, check new updates for better information!
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Thanks, ©BWOT
Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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