Tropical Storm Yagi Intensifying Over South China Sea, Targeting Hainan Island, Southern China and Northern Vietnam
Potential Typhoon Yagi Update: 11:00 PM Thursday, September 5, 2024 (CST)
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued its latest official warning on potential Typhoon Yagi (12W), currently active as Tropical Storm Yagi in the Northwest Pacific. The storm, located north-northwest of Manila, Philippines, is steadily intensifying as it tracks north-northwestward over the northern region of Luzon.
“The Potential Typhoon Yagi is poised for significant strengthening as it moves into the South China Sea, with rapid intensification likely in the coming days. Below is the latest information on Yagi’s position, strength, and forecasted path”
Current Status of Tropical Storm Yagi
As of 11:00 PM CST on September 3, 2024, Tropical Storm Yagi was located near 18.8°N latitude and 119.0°E longitude. The storm is currently moving north-northwest at 3 knots (5.6 km/h), approximately 512 km north-northwest of Manila.
Yagi currently boasts maximum sustained winds of 50 knots (93 km/h), with gusts reaching up to 65 knots (120 km/h).
Tropical Storm Yagi’s Wind Distribution and Intensity
The storm’s wind field is expanding as it churns over the warm waters of the South China Sea. The storm is bringing 50-knot winds that extend 40 nautical miles (74 km) in all quadrants. Meanwhile, 34-knot winds reach up to 85 nautical miles (157 km) in the southwest quadrant.
Yagi is expected to undergo rapid intensification, becoming a stronger tropical storm in the coming 12 to 24 hours. By midnight on September 4, 2024 (00:00 CST), Yagi is forecast to have sustained winds of 60 knots (111 km/h) and gusts of 75 knots (139 km/h) as it moves over the South China Sea, approaching the waters off southern China.
Forecast Track and Intensity Predictions for Potential Typhoon Yagi
Over the next 24 to 36 hours, Yagi will continue tracking westward. By 8:00 PM CST on September 4, 2024, the storm is forecast to intensify into a typhoon with sustained winds of 75 knots (139 km/h) and gusts of 90 knots (167 km/h).
Further intensification is expected, with Yagi potentially reaching Category 2-equivalent typhoon strength by 8:00 AM CST on September 5, 2024, when maximum sustained winds are projected to hit 90 knots (167 km/h) with gusts up to 110 knots (204 km/h).
The storm’s strength will peak around 8:00 PM CST on September 5, 2024, when it is forecast to have maximum sustained winds of 100 knots (185 km/h) and gusts of 125 knots (231 km/h), placing it as a Category 3-equivalent typhoon. This intensification is driven by a highly favorable environment, including low wind shear and sea surface temperatures of 31-32°C.
Potential Threats to Hainan, Northern Vietnam and Southern China by Potential Typhoon Yagi
The Potential Typhoon Yagi is projected to continue tracking west-northwestward towards Hainan Island and southern China. The storm is expected to make landfall on Northern Vietnam-Southen China coast by September 7, 2024, around 8:00 PM CST.
It is likely to cross near 21.3°N latitude and 107.3°E longitude, with sustained winds of 55 knots (102 km/h) and gusts of 70 knots (130 km/h) as it begins to weaken over land.
Residents of Hainan and southern China should brace for significant wind damage, storm surges, and heavy rainfall. The extended forecast suggests Yagi will bring intense impacts, including flooding and strong winds, to coastal areas of southern China and central Vietnam.
Read More: Tropical Storm Yagi To Re-intensify over South China Sea
Environmental Conditions and Rapid Intensification Potential of Potential Typhoon Yagi
Potential Typhoon Yagi is expected to take advantage of its favorable environment as it traverses the South China Sea. Warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, and robust outflow into the upper atmosphere are expected to drive the storm’s rapid intensification.
Overall Conclusion of the Forecast Update
As Tropical Storm Yagi intensifies, it poses an increasing threat to coastal areas of southern China, Hainan Island, and northern Vietnam.
Residents in these regions should monitor updates from local authorities and the JTWC closely and prepare for potential severe impacts, including heavy rain, storm surges, and damaging winds.
If you are in an old update, check latest update here: Global Weather
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