NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 2/TOPICAL DEPRESSION
DATE: 02 DEC 2021
DAY: THURSDAY
TIME: 2:30PM BST (+6 GMT)
The Low Pressure Area over SE Bay of Bengal has moved WNW & intensified into a Tropical Depression over South Central adjoining SE Bay of Bengal.
Multispectral satellite animation is showing improved rotations with deep convection sheared Northwest of the system center.
It is being located approximately 1050km SE of Vishakhapatnam, India.
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★Winds(1min avg):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center is 45km/h.
Gusting up to 55km/h.
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★Forecast:-
Upper Level analysis indicates that the system is currently in favourable environment due to Low to moderate wind shear offsetting by robust outflow aloft. Also having favourable SST (29-30°C) & few other atmospheric parameter’s support.
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•Due to the aforementioned conditions, It could intensify into a Deep Depression within next 24hrs.
•Then it could intensify into a minimal CS(≤70kph) over West Central Bay of Bengal during subsequent 12-24hrs.
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•Due to land interaction & increasing shear thereafter, it could weaken gradually while tracking NE towards WB & Bangladesh.
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★Movement:-
It has moved on WNW direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 22km/h.
*From the present location, it could move generally WNW/NW towards North AP Coast till 3rd Dec & then recurve NNE/NE towards West Bengal by touching/Crossing Odisha coast.
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★Landfall:-
It could touch/cross Odisha coast between 4th(evening)- 5th(Morning) Dec as a Deep Depression. Further it might cross West Bengal coast as a Depression between 5th(evening)- 6th(Morning) Dec.
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★Warning:-
North Andhra Pradesh & Odisha coast might be in risk of 55-65kph winds with gusting up to 75kph by 04-05 December. Then, West Bengal & South West Bangladesh could be effected by 40-50kph winds with gusting up to 60kph.
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★Advisory:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the Central, West Central, NW Bay of Bengal & neighborhood areas during next 4days. Everyone should cancel all tour plan into deep sea for next 4days which is nearing the System Track.
Currently, whomever into the deep sea should stay close to the coast or avoid the risky area as stated here.
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★Rainfall:-
North Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal & Bangladesh could have moderate to heavy rain along with isolated heavy to very heavy spell between 03-8th Dec 2021.
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★Note: These information are subjective to change slightly. So, check new updates for better information!
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Thanks, ©BWOT
Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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