NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 2/TROPICAL DEPRESSION (92B)
DATE: 06 MAY 2022 | DAY: SATURDAY | BST (+6 GMT)
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The Well Marked LPA over South Andaman Sea adjoining SE Bay of Bengal has moved slightly on NW direction and intensified into a “Tropical Depression” over SE Bay of Bengal adjoining South Andaman Sea.
Multispectral satellite animation is showing good rotations of the LLCC(Low Level Cyclonic Circulation) along with developing CDO feature.
It is being located about 1550km SSE of Kolkata, India.
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▪Winds(1min avg):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center is 45km/h.
Gusting up to 50km/h.
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▪Forecast:-
The System is under very favourable environment due to low to moderate VWS offsetting by Excellent Outflow & High SST. Conditions could remain favourable during next 48hrs.
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•It could intensify into a Deep Depression within next 12hrs. Further, more intensification might lead the system to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm by subsequent 12hrs.
NB: the next 48hrs could cause faster intensification than you think.
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•As of present view, the Potential Cyclone could peak near 100kph by 9th May.
“There is a chance of rapid intensification in the forecast period that might change the peak intensity significantly.”
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▪Movement:-
It has moved on NW direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 15km/h.
*From the present location, it could move generally on North West direction towards Eastern Indian coast with gradual intensification. Recurving into north & NNE direction likely thereafter.
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▪Landfall:-
It could cross the coasts between Odisha to SW Bangladesh around 12th May 2022 as a weakening Cyclone.
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▪Warning: N/A
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▪Advisory:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the Deep Sea during next 5-6days.
Sea condition could be rough to very rough over the region.
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▪Rainfall:-
Due to the direct impact of the system, Eastern India & Western Bangladesh could be effected by moderate to heavy rain along with Tropical Squalls & extremely heavy falls at isolated places across the system track between 10-15 May.
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▪Note: These information are subjective to change slightly!
So, check new update for better information!
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Thanks, ©BWOT
Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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