NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 1/WELL MARKED LPA (92B)
DATE: 06 MAY 2022 | DAY: FRIDAY
TIME: 4:00PM BST (+6 GMT)
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The Low Pressure Area over South Andaman Sea adjoining SE Bay of Bengal has moved slightly on NW direction and intensified into a Well Marked LPA over the same region by this noon.
Multispectral satellite animation is showing rotations of the LLCC(Low Level Cyclonic Circulation).
It is being located about 1650km SSE of Kolkata, India.
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▪Winds(1min avg):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center is 35km/h.
Gusting up to 45km/h.
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▪Forecast:-
The System is under favourable environment due to moderate VWS offsetting by Excellent Outflow & High SST. Conditions could become very favourable during next 48hrs.
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•It could intensify into a Tropical Depression within next 6-12hrs. Further, more intensification might lead the system to intensify into a Deep Depression by tomorrow morning/noon & a Cyclonic Storm by tomorrow evening/night.
NB: the next 48hrs could cause faster intensification than you think.
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•As of present view, the Potential Cyclone could peak near 100kph by 9th May.
“There is a chance of rapid intensification in the forecast period that might change the peak intensity significantly.”
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▪Movement:-
It has moved on NW direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 08km/h.
*From the present location, it could move generally on North West direction towards Eastern Indian coast with gradual intensification.
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▪Landfall:-
It could cross the coasts between Odisha to SW Bangladesh by 10-12th May 2022 as a weakening Cyclone.
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▪Warning: N/A
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▪Advisory:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the Deep Sea during next 5-6days.
Sea condition could be rough to very rough over the region.
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▪Rainfall:-
Due to the direct impact of the system, Eastern India & Western Bangladesh could be effected by moderate to heavy rain along with Tropical Squalls & extremely heavy falls at isolated places across the system track.
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▪Note: These information are subjective to change slightly!
So, check new update for better information!
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Thanks, ©BWOT
Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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